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Archive for January, 2016

Hillary or Bernie?

Democrats are debdemocratcandidates61815ating the wrong questions about their candidates.  Only electability counts.

There are reasons to prefer Hillary or Bernie, but none of that matters if Republicans win. Either candidate will be perfectly satisfactory to most Democrats, if elected, but will have been a disaster if defeated.

This is not a back-handed endorsement for Hillary.  There are reasons to imagine either candidate could best a Republican.  Here’s my chart, in alphabetical order, of factors that may matter.

  • Broad experience – Advantage HILLARY
  • Compelling personality – Advantage BERNIE
  • Foreign policy capacity – Advantage HILLARY
  • Inspiring message – Advantage BERNIE
  • Passion and Purpose – Advantage BERNIE
  • Ready for the ‘midnight call’ – Advantage HILLARY
  • Rhetorical power – Advantage BERNIE
  • Tested Under Republican Fire – Advantage HILLARY

Of these, there is one factor that is the sine qua non of electoral politics – passion and purpose.  That’s not a laundry list of policies – Hillary’s got that covered – it’s a kind of maniacal fire in the belly that you can feel burning in the person. Trump’s got it. Bernie’s got it. Hillary – that remains to be seen.

Here are RealClear Politics numbers today.  These numbers may not be the final answer, but they do illustrate that it is a difficult call.

Trump v. Clinton = Clinton by 2.7
Trump v. Sanders = Sanders by 5.3

Cruz v. Clinton = Cruz by 1.3
Cruz v. Sanders = Sanders by 3.3

Democrats need to stop comparing the policies, and focus on one thing: which candidate can win?

 

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